"After long inaction in Zimbabwe and Darfur, member states are looking for an easy win to show progress to democracy, observer says" (globe and Mail)
L'UA a vite sauté sur cette occasion, alors qu'il n'ose même pas affronter le lion du Zimbabwé ou la panthère du Tchad.
Le Blog and Mail qualifie cette opportunité, pour l'union africaine, d'une victoire facile pour faire rehausser son image.
Nous y reviendrons tout à l'heure pour d'autres analyses.
Voici l'article
African Union to stage rare coup in Comoros
JOHANNESBURG — Troops are preparing an amphibious invasion of one island in the tiny East African archipelago of the Comoros to oust its leader in the name of defending democracy on the orders of the African Union.
It's a startling move for the AU, whose member states have consistently refused to take action on issues such as Robert Mugabe's tyrannical rule of Zimbabwe or the Sudanese government's backing of militias in Darfur, always citing the concept of national sovereignty.
"People will be asking, 'Why is the AU invading a country that is not strategically or economically or politically important?' And what is the difference between the situation in Comoros and that in Zimbabwe or Chad?" said Chrysantus Ayangafac, a researcher with the Direct Conflict Prevention Program at the Institute for Security Studies in Addis Ababa.
"But AU success in Comoros is going to give them some capital to say, 'We are solving some problems, tackling illegitimacy on the continent.' And the Comoros is a much easier animal to hunt [than Zimbabwe]. But if the AU fails, it doesn't harm their reputation: they will sweep it under the carpet."
The Comoros - a federation of three islands in the Indian Ocean between Tanzania on the mainland and Madagascar - has a population of about 700,000. Each island has a president and parliament, which sit beneath an overarching federal government.
An estimated 1,500 soldiers from Senegal, Tanzania, Sudan and Libya are amassing on the island of Moheli, preparing to take down President Mohammed Bacar, a former chief of police who is refusing to cede power on the neighbouring island of Anjouan. The AU has been asked to intervene by the federal government, after months of sanctions and negotiations have made no progress in ousting Mr. Bacar. France, the former colonial power in the Comoros, is providing logistical support to the planned invasion.
"We are outraged," Mr. Bacar told the Associated Press yesterday, saying the AU urges dialogue in other countries, "but with us, they only speak of force."
Mr. Bacar, who controls the island's economy, has the support of its business elite, but has cracked down harshly on human-rights groups, the news media and all perceived opponents. He has the loyalty of Anjouan's force of about 500 well-armed gendarmes and a private militia, which roughly matches the troop strength of the federal force, which is why a military intervention requires outside involvement.
The driving force behind the invasion, which caught most Africa-watchers off-guard, appears to be Tanzania, which has the strongest ties of any African state to the Comoros. Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete, current chair of the AU, is acting on a request from Ahmed Abdallah Sambi, the President of the Comoros Union, the supergovernment.
South African President Thabo Mbeki, the single most influential player among AU leaders, is leaning on the African Union to hold off on the invasion, which was slated to have occurred last Sunday before Mr. Mbeki intervened, insisting that all diplomatic avenues had not been exhausted.
The Tanzanians yesterday reiterated their intention to proceed, but it is not clear if they are defying Mr. Mbeki, or simply seeking to play hardball with Mr. Bacar.
The Comoros have been plagued by political instability since its independence from France in 1975; there have been more than 19 coups on the tiny archipelago in that time.
The roots of this crisis lie in election held in June last year, when each island had a poll for its resident parliament (the federal presidency rotates among them in a complex power-sharing system). Before the vote, the federal government said Mr. Bacar, who came to power in a 2001 coup, had to step down, having served one term. He refused.
Mr. Mbeki said earlier this week that Mr. Bacar had promised to hold a new election in May, and he accepted that as a basis for a solution. Certainly, Mr. Bacar has shown new willingness to deal, as the troops line up on the nearby island.
But the federal government says the time for talking has passed, and that Mr. Bacar must either flee or face charges of crimes against humanity for his repression of opponents; an interim ruling council will take control after the invasion and a new election will be planned, it says.
But Mr. Ayangafac warned of an Iraq-like situation that could backfire badly for the AU. "We might see a situation where the military battle is won but there is no peace. Does the AU have the political and diplomatic resilience to stay to win peace if this continues for one or two or five years? And where are they going to get the money for postconflict reconstruction and development?"